Derivation
of exponential probability distribution of a process duration assuming
constant probability rate of process termination
Suppose a
process
has begun and its probability of termination in a time interval dt is ldt.
The probability is assumed independent on time.
The probability of a process to survive time t+dt
is equal to the probability of a process to survive time t and
to not terminate in a next time
interval dt. Thus:
P(t + dt) = P(t)(1 -
ldt)
dP(t) = -P(t)ldt dP(t)/dt = -P(t)l Solution to this differential equation is: P(t) = P0e-lt Where P0 is a normalization constant: P0 = 1/∫e-ltdt We finally get: P(t) = le-lt which is the exponential probability density function. |